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[Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful!
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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Fri 1 Sep - 21:51 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Ive played a few 1P games recently with multiple surface ship engagements and I'm finding that when the Japanese attacks with torpedos they are doing WAY TOO MUCH DAMAGE and is historically inaccurate. 

I'm basing my result on kill ratio.  For every ship that fires torpedos, how many are sinking ships?


Example, 
Battle 1, IJN attacks defending US TF.
IJN - 2 BB, 4 CA, 6 DD


US - 1 CA, 2 CL, 10 DD


Battle results - IJN torpedos sink 7 DD!  So you have 10 IJN that can fire torpedos and they sink 7 ships?!!! That's a 70% kill ratio.


Battle 2, IJN attacks US TF
IJN - 1 CL, 6 DD, 4 TRS (So the IJN is attacking with transports)


US - 2 BB, 3 CA, 3 CL, 10 DD
(Now keep in mind that not only is the IJN attacking a superior force, they are attacking with transports!  I thought any TF with CV or TRS avoid combat at all cost. So I'm confounded here.)


Battle results - 6 DD sunk!  So here you have 7 IJN ships that can fire torpedos and they sink 6 ships. That's basically a 90% kill ratio! And the fact they did it while escorting transports is even more dumbfounding. 


Battle 3, IJN attacks US TF
IJN - 4 DD


US - 4 DD


Battle results 4 DD sunk!  That's a 100% kill ratio. 


So as you can see, the Japanese torpedos are WAY TOO POWERFUL. From what historical documents and reports that I have read, the IJN had around a 20% to 30% kill ration.  Never had it been higher than 50% unless it was a small attack say 4 ship vs 4 ships or less but never 100%. 


So the way I see it is that there is a flaw in the damage chart or how it's being processed that is producing unhistorical results and needs to be fixed. 

Has anyone else had this problem?  Also, does anyone else have actual historical records on the success of IJN torpedos in fleet battles?  I'd like to know. 


Thanks


Last edited by USS Archerfish on Tue 5 Sep - 09:29 (2017); edited 1 time in total
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larsenjp
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PostPosted: Sun 3 Sep - 15:42 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Archerfish,

Funny since i had a brief discussion (by mail) about this point with BR this week-end after sending him some reports about a 1P Midway game i played last week.

I had more or less the same problem and, indeed, Japanese torpedoes are deadly. Actually they were deadly but most probably not to this point.
Maybe we could find out some statistics, i think some US Navy bureau made such statistics, or maybe USSBS?

I also found that the Japanese DDs were launching torpedoes salvos one after another... which also unlikely since the number of "fishes" aboard was limited and they had to reload the tubes. I recommended BR to limit Japanese DDs (and cruisers) to launch torpedoes salvos (no more than a limited number of salvos and maybe also allowing only one our of two phases for reloading would be interesting).

I also had the problem of an IJN TRS TF attacking my own TF. Actually my TF was defending the Midway hexe; it has already repelled the Japanese TF but they came back! I think most probably the Japanese TF was "programmed" to aim at this hexe so it went in regardless adverse odds. I recommended BR to change the IA with respect to this since it is very unlikely that any Japanese commander (not to speak about Allied) would have risked his precious transports and the men aboard this way.
As you said, i was quite confounded by this behavior from the AI. Nevertheless, some human players may want to do the same...


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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Sun 3 Sep - 19:15 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Thanks for the feed back Larsen.  Ok so I'm not the only one having the same problem with torpedos. 

I forward this to BR too. He thought it might have been bad luck but it's more than that.  I think part of the problem is the die roll.  

For example let's say you are using a damage chart from 1 to 100. If you use a single 1- 100 die to make a roll, you have a higher chance of hitting 1 and 100. But if you use "10" 1 to 10 die the chances of you rolling a 1 or 100 are greatly reduced. Using the latter methods reduces the chance of extreme outcomes and increases the chances of more average out comes.  

Now BR gave me this explanation 


"Just bad luck
What needs to be done imo is to limit the number of ships in position to fire torpedoes and the stock"

I don't quite fully understand what he means. Maybe the game currently lets all torpedo capable ships fire torpedos? And that he need to modify the AI so that all the ships can't fire and instead randomly select the number of ships that can be in position to fire torpedo? Thus reducing the number of torpedo attacks? If so this would help but the remaining ships would still have a high kill ratio. 


From historical and historian reports that I read was that the IJN while more effective than the US torpedos weren't overwhelming that effective. Rarely where they the deciding factor in a surface engagement. The only report that I found that they were was in the battle of the Bismarck Sea where 4 IJN DDs sank 3 out of 4 US DDs


Part of the reason they were not extremely effective was because the IJN frequently launched them at long range. This significantly reduced their chances of success. 

As for the TRS, I've also sent some emails to BR on this as well. I agree with you that TRS TF just blindly sail on to their destination regardless of what else is going on and will attack anything in their destination hex or the hexes surrounding it. 

I think two things need to be changed

1. If escorting CV retreat or are destroyed , than so does the TRS TF.


1.  TRS TF combat status should alway be "Never" or at minimum 1:1. 


Last edited by USS Archerfish on Tue 5 Sep - 09:30 (2017); edited 1 time in total
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larsenjp
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PostPosted: Mon 4 Sep - 20:14 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

You are welcome!

I think BR makes reference to one point we discussed i.e. limiting the number of times a ship may launch torpedoes due to a limited number of torpedoes available. I would also recommend not to allow firing torpedoes two consecutive phases because of reloading.
AS for ships in position to fire torpedoes, i don't know what he refers to...

Regarding your proposition about TRS and combat, i fully agree, the idea being that TRS TF should never go into combat if possible, especially never move into an hex containing an enemy TF (except maybe if there is already a friendly TF without TRS).


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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Mon 4 Sep - 20:26 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

This just occurred to me.  I don't know how he has programmed the torpedo attacks but maybe this might help. 

Perhaps another way to fix this is to copy the US torpedo attack table chart and then bump it up a bit for the IJN. US torpedo attacks seem to be more realistic. 


For example, this is the results of a recent surface battle I had with Curry.


Battle line up. (Me - IJN, Curry - US)


IJN - 2 BB, 2 CA, 1 CL, 9 DD


US - 3 CA, 3 CL, 14 DD


US launches torpedo attack.  3 IJN DDs sunk.  For an IJN attack I might expect another 1 or 2 DDs sunk, 3 if they were very luck but no more than that. 


For me that is a much more realistic attack. 


Last edited by USS Archerfish on Tue 5 Sep - 09:31 (2017); edited 1 time in total
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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Tue 5 Sep - 00:20 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Here is another article I found. 
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/japans-super-torpedo-was-the-hype…


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currymutton
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PostPosted: Tue 5 Sep - 03:18 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Exclamation: played a couple of Guadalcanal (beta, sorry) last night. I am not counting but roughly 3 out 5 surface engagements, IJN fired torpedo salvos even in board daylight. It was not really just bad luck.

Complaint: this has been discussed way back from the beginning, but nothing seems to be done and it is a very bad, if it were, equalizer. 


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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Tue 5 Sep - 09:28 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Ok Gents


I found a historical research paper that anylized and provides statistics of the effectiveness of Japanese torpedo attacks by IJN surface forces. 
http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-067.htm


It anylizes 23 IJN surface battles where the IJN used torpedos.  I've summarized those involved in the Guadalcanal campaign. I'll update more later. 


Historical results of torpedo attacks by IJN surface ships against US/Allied ships


Sunk ratio is determined by how many IJN ships fired torpedoes and how many US/Allied ships sunk. 


Damaged ratio is determined by how many IJN ships fired torpedoes and how many US/Allied ships were severely damaged.


Salvo Island - August 9th 1942
IJN - 5 CA, 2 CL, 1 DD
US - 5 CA, 7 DD
Attack - IJN lunches 15 torpedo attacks (45 Type-93, 4 Type-8, 12 Type-6 : Total 61)
Results: 7 hits 1 dud. (13.1% hit ratio)  
2 CA sunk (Sunk ratio 25%)
1 damaged (Dmg ratio 12.5%)



1st Guadalcanal Battle - November 13 1942 (Also called the 3rd Battle of Salvo Island)
IJN - 1 BB, 1 CL,  11 DD
US - 2 CA, 3 CL, 8 DD
Attack: IJN launches 15 torpedo attacks (48 Type-93)
Results: 6 hits (12.5% hit ratio) 
2 DD sunk (Sunk ratio 16.7%)
1 CA & 2 CL damaged (Dmg. Ratio 25%)


2nd Guadalcanal Battle - November 14-15, 1942
IJN - 1 BB, 2 CA, 2 CL, 11 DD
US - 2 BB, 4 DD
Attack: IJN launches 14 torpedo attacks (51 Type-93) 
Results: 2 hits (3.9% hit ratio) 
1 DD sunk ( Sunk ratio 25%)
1 DD damaged ( Sunk ratio 25%)


4th Battle of Salvo Island November 30th 1942 (The Battle of Tassafaronga)
IJN - 8 DD
US - 4CA, 1 CL, 6 DD
Attack: IJN launches 8 torpedo attacks (47 Type-93)
Results: 6 hits (12.7% hit ratio)
1 CA sunk (sunk ratio 12.5%)
3 CA damaged (Dmg ratio 32.5%)



The Battle of the Komandorski Islands
IJN 2 CA, 2 CL, 5 DD
US - 1 CA, 1 CL, 4 DDs.
Attack: 9 launches (42 Type-93)
Results: 0 hits


There is more but I'll update it later. 


Last edited by USS Archerfish on Thu 7 Sep - 02:37 (2017); edited 2 times in total
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Bladerunner
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PostPosted: Wed 6 Sep - 21:32 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Okay, okay, I got the message
This will compete with CAP and search enhancement for next functional update


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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Thu 7 Sep - 02:17 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

I wasn't trying to beat up on you.  I was just trying to provide as much info as I could so when you do update it you have more information to base your programming on. 

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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Thu 7 Sep - 02:21 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Here is some more data for you


The table below sumarizes these actions (ANTFPH = Average Number of Torpedoes Fired Per Hit). 
  
 


Engagement ANTFPH
Percentage  
   
  3) 19-20 Feb 42 The Battle of Badung Strait8:1
12.5% 
  4) 27 Feb 42 The Battle of the Java Sea 54.67:1
1.8% 
  6) 1 Mar 42 The Battle of Sunda Strait7.4:1
13.5% 
  7) 9 Aug 42 The Battle of Savo Island7.6:1
13.1% 
  8) 21 Aug 42 The loss of USS Blue4:1
25% 
  9) 11-12 Oct 42 The Battle of Cape Esperence2:0
0% 
10) 13 Nov 42 The First Naval Battle of Guadalcanal8:1
12.5% 
11) 14-15 Nov 42 The Second Naval Battle of Guadalcanal25.5:1
3.9% 
12) 29-30 Nov 42 The Battle of Tassafaronga7.8:1
12.7% 
13) 26 Mar 43 The Battle of the Komandorski Islands42:0
0% 
14) 6 Jul 43 The Battle of Kula Gulf12:1
8.3% 
15) 13 Jul 43 The Battle of Kolombangara16:1
6.25% 
16) 6-7 Aug 43 The Battle of Vella Gulf8:0
0% 
17) 18 Aug 43 The Battle of Horaniu26:0
0% 
18) 6 Oct 43 The Battle of Vella Lavella24:1
4.1% 
19) 2 Nov 43 The Battle of Empress Augusta Bay44:1
2.2% 
20) 26 Nov 43 The Battle of Cape St. George9:0
0% 
21) 7 Jun 44 The Battle off Biak42:0
0% 
22) 24-25 Oct 44 The Battle of Surigao Strait20:0
0% 
23) 25 Oct 44 The Battle off Samar7:0
0% 
26) 3 Dec 44 The Battle of Ormoc Bay     4:1 
     25% 
   
                             Averages  
16.76:1
6.71% 


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larsenjp
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PostPosted: Sat 9 Sep - 14:19 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Nice job Archerfish! Very interesting.
It can be seen that, at the beginning of the war, in 1942, except for the Java Sea, around 12.5-13.5%.
Then it drops in 1943, something like 6-8% but with total failure.
Finally in 1944, it is nil.
So for the period of the game, percentage of hit is around 13%.


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Bladerunner
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PostPosted: Sat 9 Sep - 22:17 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Thanks for figures Darell  Okay


What I can see from them
- the IJN had fired between 1 and 2 torpedo salvoes per battle
- each salvo had an average of 4 torpedoes
- the hit rate of each torpedo was about 10%
- each ships carries between 8 and 24 fishes


In game terms
- depending on the surprise amount, any ships may fire 1 or 2 salvoes (3 currently in the rules). 
- a torpedo on the screen represents 4 real torpedoes
- the hit rate of 4 times 10% is about 35% which match the current rules at night
- each ship may then fire betwwen 2 and 6 salvoes. (Unlimited today)


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Bladerunner
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PostPosted: Thu 21 Sep - 19:40 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

Will be mitigated in v2.1 version, see new features

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USS Archerfish
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PostPosted: Fri 22 Sep - 00:27 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful! Reply with quote

larsenjp wrote:
Nice job Archerfish! Very interesting.
It can be seen that, at the beginning of the war, in 1942, except for the Java Sea, around 12.5-13.5%.
Then it drops in 1943, something like 6-8% but with total failure.
Finally in 1944, it is nil.
So for the period of the game, percentage of hit is around 13%.


Thanks


It's interesting that the hit rate drops to zero in 44. I wonder why?  Did the training drop?  


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PostPosted: Today at 08:31 (2017)    Post subject: [Done] Japanese Torpedos Too Powerful!

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